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Strategy Graphs for Influence Diagrams

Hansen, Eric A. (Mississippi State University) | Shi, Jinchuan (Mississippi State University) | Kastrantas, James (Mississippi State University)

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

An influence diagram is a graphical model of a Bayesian decision problem that is solved by finding a strategy that maximizes expected utility. When an influence diagram is solved by variable elimination or a related dynamic programming algorithm, it is traditional to represent a strategy as a sequence of policies, one for each decision variable, where a policy maps the relevant history for a decision to an action. We propose an alternative representation of a strategy as a graph, called a strategy graph, and show how to modify a variable elimination algorithm so that it constructs a strategy graph. We consider both a classic variable elimination algorithm for influence diagrams and a recent extension of this algorithm that has more relaxed constraints on elimination order that allow improved performance. We consider the advantages of representing a strategy as a graph and, in particular, how to simplify a strategy graph so that it is easier to interpret and analyze.


Lazy Evaluation of Symmetric Bayesian Decision Problems

Madsen, Anders L., Jensen, Finn Verner

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Solving symmetric Bayesian decision problems is a computationally intensive task to perform regardless of the algorithm used. In this paper we propose a method for improving the efficiency of algorithms for solving Bayesian decision problems. The method is based on the principle of lazy evaluation - a principle recently shown to improve the efficiency of inference in Bayesian networks. The basic idea is to maintain decompositions of potentials and to postpone computations for as long as possible. The efficiency improvements obtained with the lazy evaluation based method is emphasized through examples. Finally, the lazy evaluation based method is compared with the HUGIN and valuation-based systems architectures for solving symmetric Bayesian decision problems.